The Philippines faces intense typhoons in the ‘ber’ months due to warm sea temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, seasonal weather shifts, the country’s geographical location, and potential influences from climate change.

A decade has passed since super typhoon Yolanda made landfall, claiming thousands of lives, and it still holds the record as the most powerful cyclone to hit the Philippines in recent history. However, Yolanda’s devastating impact was not an isolated incident. In the years preceding and following this super typhoon, various weather systems of different intensities wreaked havoc, causing significant damage to both infrastructure and lives.

In 2011, tropical storm Sendong (Washi) unleashed torrential rains, leading to catastrophic flash floods and landslides in Mindanao, earning the grim distinction of being the deadliest storm of that year. Just a year later, Typhoon Pablo (Bopha), which could be compared to a category 5 cyclone in the western hemisphere, devastated the same region.

More recently, the nightmare of Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) in 2009, which submerged Marikina and other parts of Metro Manila, was relived in 2020 when Typhoon Ulysses (Vamco) battered Luzon. The following year, Typhoon Odette (Rai) wreaked havoc in Mindanao and Visayas.

Although these extreme weather events occurred in different years within a span of over a decade, they all share a commonality—they took place in the last quarter of the year, known as the “ber” months among Filipinos.

For the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the occurrence of stronger storms during this period is no longer a surprise. PAGASA’s weather specialist, Benison Estareja, explained that two main factors influence the formation and path of these stronger storms: warmer sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and high-pressure areas.

The warmer sea surface temperatures contribute to the formation of cloud clusters that eventually evolve into storms. During the “ber” months, the high-pressure area pushes these storms westward or west-northwest towards Mindanao, Visayas, and Central Luzon.

Additionally, the presence of an El Niño phenomenon can exacerbate these conditions. While El Niño tends to reduce below-normal rainfall in some parts of the country, it can still result in above-normal rainfall conditions in other regions due to increased sea surface temperatures, leading to the formation of potentially stronger typhoons.

This trend aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report, which suggests that climate change can lead to more intense weather events, even if their overall frequency does not significantly increase.

Estareja emphasized that although it may take years for the public to feel the full effects of climate change, the current presence of El Niño, coupled with environmental degradation, increases the likelihood of more extreme climate events compared to previous decades.

The Philippines remains highly susceptible to extreme weather events, despite the lessons learned from Yolanda. Environmental group Kalikasan expressed concerns that the country still lacks clear action plans and adequate preparedness and resilience measures.

They emphasized the need for concrete steps in climate adaptation, solutions to address future challenges related to climate change, and strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

With two more months left in 2023, PAGASA anticipates the entry of at least two to three typhoons into the Philippine area of responsibility. The intensity of these remaining typhoons remains uncertain, but disaster officials are counting on the lessons learned by communities from past devastating typhoons to minimize destruction and, most importantly, save lives.